SSP House Race Ratings Changes: 10/19

(DavidNYC and Crisitunity contributed to the writing of this post.)

The Swing State Project has changed its ratings on fourteen House races. Here’s a summary of our thoughts on each move:

AL-02 (Open): Tossup to Lean Republican

When your own internal polling shows a ten-point lead collapsing into a tie in a deep-red R+13 district, you know you’ve hit a rough patch.

Bobby Bright has racked up good endorsements but doesn’t seem to be doing the necessary leg-work to win this race on the ground. Republican Jay Love has not only written himself over $800K worth of checks, he’s also outraised Bright from regular donors. Even more troubling: Love is ahead of Bright by a nearly 5-to-1 margin in available cash-on-hand as of September 30th.

A combination of strong black turnout and DCCC spending might turn this seat blue, but for now, the edge clearly seems to be with the Republicans. (DavidNYC)

CA-46 (Rohrabacher): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

So it looks like we were a bit hasty last month when we took this race off the big board. In our defense, Debbie Cook was a highly-touted recruit who had managed to raise just $157K in a race against an eighteen-year incumbent in an R+6 district. It just didn’t seem like that would be enough.

But the normal rules have clearly been suspended late in this campaign season. Chatter about Rohrabacher’s weakness has exploded in the past week (see here, here and here), and rumors abound about polling showing a shockingly close race. Even if this were a million-dollar head-fake, it wouldn’t be enough to dent flush DCCC & allied coffers. That’s why we think there’s probably some truth here – at least enough to make it no longer possible to rule out an upset.

We note with amusement that this upgrade comes after a “senior advisor” to Cook sent us an email saying “Fuck you and your fucking Mendoza line” in the wake of our last rating change. SSP is nothing if not scrupulously fair, even to haters! (D)

FL-08 (Keller): Lean Republican to Tossup

After winning with only 53% of the vote in 2006, GOP Rep. Ric Keller vowed not to be caught flat-footed again in 2008. Well, after dispatching a fringe primary challenge from an underfunded right-wing radio host with a similarly small winning margin this summer, Keller hasn’t exactly proven himself to be running a sharp game as he gears up to take on self-funding attorney and businessman Alan Grayson.

Keller’s biggest problem may be one that he cannot control — namely, the Democratic trend of his R+3 Orlando-based district. Since 2006, Republicans have seen their 12,000-strong voter registration edge get whittled down to an advantage of only 2,000 voters at the end of July.

This race has already gotten nasty, and Grayson has opened up his own wallet to fund a series of hard-hitting ads against Keller. One unanswered internal poll showed Grayson leading Keller by four points, and rumors abound of similar polls showing Keller in a precarious position. (James L.)

IL-14 (Foster): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

Bill Foster’s victory in IL-14 (to replace the retiring Denny “the Hutt” Hastert) was the first of the three special elections in red territory over the last year that really started to show the Republican edifice crumbling. With an R+5 rating, and Jim Oberweis able to write whatever checks he needs out of his ice cream empire’s coffers, though, we’ve been keeping a wary eye on the rematch.

We still haven’t seen any polling of this race, but looking at fundraising numbers, the general lack of chatter coming out of this race, and a certain Illinois Senator at the top of the ticket, this one is feeling like an almost done deal. Most significantly, Oberweis only raised $88,000 in the last quarter (although he did come in with another $225K loan) and has only half the cash on hand of Foster, which suggests that Oberweis has already hung it up for the season. (Crisitunity)

IN-03 (Souder): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Whenever you upgrade a race in an R+16 district, you can never make that decision lightly, even if Barack Obama is waging a very competitive campaign throughout Indiana. But GOP Rep. Mark Souder has revealed a lot of rust in recent years, and this race is quickly moving up the heat index.

In 2006, Souder beat back a challenge from former Fort Wayne councilman Tom Hayhurst with only 54% of the vote — but only after the NRCC spent $225,000 to tip the race back in his direction in the last few weeks of the campaign.

This time around, Democrat Mike Montagano, a young attorney, has scrapped hard, raised a respectable amount of money, and beat the poorly-funded Souder to the airwaves this summer. A recent Montagano internal poll shows Souder falling fast and Montagano within five points, but the DCCC’s decision to spend $500K on media buys pummeling Souder was what really tipped the scales for us here. This district is ranked #11 on SSP’s Bang-for-the Buck Index, so you know those dollars will have a big impact. (J)

LA-01 (Scalise): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

It’s hard to believe, but here we are – through the looking glass in one of the most stridently Republican and culturally conservative districts in the entire country. Swing Staters will recall that back in May, incumbent Steve Scalise won a special election with 75% of the vote. In 2006, his predecessor Bobby Jindal took 88%. On a good day, this R+19 district is merely inhospitable to Democrats.

But it looks like we must be having a truly excellent day indeed, because Dem Jim Harlan is definitely make a race of it. The wealthy self-funder hasn’t just put his money where his mouth is – he’s aggressively taken the race to his opponent, firing off blistering attacks that have blindsided Scalise, who clearly never expected to have anything resembling a real fight on his hands.

A Harlan internal poll from a month ago showed the Dem with serious momentum and Scalise floundering below 50. (The GOP never responded with a poll of their own.) And just a few days ago, the DCCC added Harlan to Red to Blue. With the Republican Party experiencing a collapse of a magnitude not seen since 1932, the impossible has become just ever-so-slightly plausible. (D)

MN-06 (Bachmann): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

This race was the site of a hot contest in 2006 when it was an open seat (where Michele Bachmann beat Patty Wetterling), but Bachmann’s matchup with Elwyn Tinklenberg has been kind of a backwater this year. Well, that was yesterday. Intemperate remarks from Bachmann in an interview with Chris Matthews, suggesting that anyone who disagrees with her is anti-American, generated a massive response from the netroots, leaving Tinklenberg almost $500,000 richer than he was two days ago.

Also, in the last couple days, the DCCC decided to go on the air in support of Tinklenberg (which had probably already been decided prior to Bachmann turning on her overdrive on MSNBC, thanks to a DCCC internal showing a four-point Bachmann lead… but the outpouring of netroots money certainly encouraged them too, as the DCCC tends to follow the scent of money). Bachmann just released her own internal giving her an 11-point lead but showing her under 50, suggesting Tinklenberg is still running uphill. But he’s a lot closer to the summit than he was a few days ago. (C)

MS-01 (Childers): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

When we upgraded this race to “Lean Democratic” after Democrat Travis Childers rocked the political world and defeated Republican Greg Davis in this R+10 district back in May, we listed several key reasons, the most relevant being Mississippi’s reluctance to toss out incumbents coupled with the extremely poor track record of special election losers in the following general election.

I think we can add another reason to the list: Travis Childers is simply a preternaturally good fit for this district. Just look at the pictures on the right, both of Travis Childers, the down-home country boy who made good, and “South Memphis” suburban slickster Greg Davis. This is probably the only time you’ll see me descend into Chris Matthews-style electoral analysis, but one of these guys looks right for this district, and the other simply does not.

But we’re a numbers blog, and I have a few cold hard facts to dish out, too: Childers has a 51-39 lead in his latest internal poll, and his favorability rating greatly outpaces that of Davis, who seems to be spending his time doing a mea culpa tour of the district after subjecting voters to months of primary and special election sleaze. Davis’ efforts strike us as more of an effort to save face than a real campaign, and his fundraising numbers also appear half-hearted — he only raised $137K in the past three months. That simply is not enough for an effective campaign. (J)

NC-10 (McHenry): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

This is a deep red district (R+15) in rural western North Carolina, home of execrable chickenhawk Patrick McHenry; not the likeliest place to see a Democratic victory. However, attorney and double-amputee veteran Daniel Johnson has given McHenry the strongest challenge he’s seen.

This is one we’ve had our eye on since a PPP poll from June showed McHenry under 50, with only a 49-38 lead. The DCCC seemed to have liked what it saw, adding Johnson to its Red to Blue list, which in turn gave Johnson a big fundraising boost, as he raised $239K this quarter, beating McHenry’s $194K. The Republican lean of this district is a big, big obstacle, but Johnson’s momentum means an upset can’t be ruled out. (C)

NE-02 (Terry): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

GOP Rep. Lee Terry, who represents an Omaha-based R+9 district, has attracted nationwide attention for his efforts to cut Obama’s coattails short here by hyping a mythical brand of “Obama-Terry voter” (just see this recent newspaper ad for an example). We now know why he’s been so concerned. A recent Anzalone Liszt poll for Jim Esch shows Obama trailing McCain by only four points here, and Esch and Terry locked in a dead heat.

This is a rematch of a 2006 contest — one that Terry won by the unexpectedly close margin of ten points — but Esch was poorly-funded and received little support from the state party and zero support from the DCCC. That situation is much different this time; the DCCC is spending heavily on ads against Terry, and the Obama campaign has opened three field offices in the district in an effort to snatch this district’s split electoral vote. While Esch still faces a steep climb, he appears to have the momentum. (J)

NY-13 (Open): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

This move comes as an exclamation mark at the end of a long, sordid series of events the culminated with the GOP’s nomination of ex-Assemblyman/former hot dog restaurateur/current Manhattan resident Robert Straniere, who literally appears to be the candidate of last resort for the Staten Island GOP.

Democrat Mike McMahon has racked up some important and impressive endorsements in this race: Michael Bloomberg, Hillary Clinton, and Staten Island Conservative Borough President James Molinaro. For his part, Straniere has received attention for individuals who haven’t endorsed him, including ex-Rep. Guy Molinari, who threw his endorsement to the Conservative Party’s nominee, Tim Cochrane. Molinari has also spent all summer feeding local media with the worst soundbites imaginable against Straniere.

The cherry on top of all this was a last-ditch effort by friends of disgraced GOP Rep. Vito Fossella to nominate Straniere for a judgeship, which would allow Fossella to run for another term. The move, which blindsided Straniere, proved once and for all how unloved the Wiener King really is.

According to the latest FEC filings, Straniere has only raised $71K for his bid and has $1900 in the bank — a far cry from the many hundreds of thousands that McMahon, a respected city councilman, has amassed and spent. Sources tell SSP that the remaining $1900 will be used to replace the dead rat on Straniere’s head with a flying squirrel. (J)

OR-05 (Open): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

When Darlene Hooley announced her retirement earlier this year, holding onto this seat actually seemed one of the Dems’ biggest worries. It was a D+1 seat with a small GOP registration advantage, and Hooley never won by more than around 10 points.

This race shows that a little success at candidate recruitment goes a long way. State senator Kurt Schrader emerged with little trouble from the Democratic primary, while the GOP primary turned into a nightmarish slugfest, as empty-suit businessman (and 2006 candidate) Mike Erickson barely beat out 2002 gubernatorial nominee Kevin Mannix… but not before Mannix lowered the boom, bringing up allegations that the ostensibly pro-life Erickson had recently impregnated a girlfriend and paid for her abortion.

Subsequent disasters for Erickson included an expose of his charitable trip to Cuba which involved suspiciously little charity. Between a collapse of Erickson’s fundraising (only $31K last quarter and $42K CoH), a recent SurveyUSA poll giving Schrader a 51-38 edge, and the Oregonian’s endorsement of Schrader (and derisive dismissal of Erickson), the big question now seems to be whether Schrader can beat Hooley’s underwhelming margins on his way to victory. (C)

PA-04 (Altmire): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

Fortune is not going to smile kindly on most Republicans who chose to make a political comeback (or, heck, a political start) in 2008, and ex-Rep. Melissa Hart is no exception to the rule.

Two recent polls, one by SurveyUSA and another by Anzalone Liszt, both show frosh Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire leading by 12 points in this culturally conservative R+2.6 western Pennsylvania seat. More importantly, they also indicate that Altmire has a much better favorable rating than Hart.

Altmire also has been using his big fundraising lead to his advantage, spending $900K in the last quarter to Hart’s $100K — and he still has over a million left in the bank. The fact that neither party committee has spent any resources on this race suggests to us that Altmire is sitting comfortably. (J)

SC-01 (Brown): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

When wealthy heiress Linda Ketner first buzzed our radar tower long ago, we imagined she might shake things up a bit in this R+10 district, but victory seemed out of the question. No longer. Incumbent Henry Brown, like many other Republicans, has been caught napping and is struggling to brush the cobwebs from his eyes as he groggily jolts awake.

Ketner claims internal polling shows her close, but one thing we know for sure is that the DCCC seems to be higher on this race, having added it to Red to Blue in the same round as LA-01 above. Ketner has drawn blood here, excoriating Brown for his reckless behavior in burning down twenty acres of a national forest and the abuses of power he engaged in to avoid taking responsibility for his crime. If African Americans, who make up over 20% of this district, turn out in force on Election Day, Ketner might just surprise the world. (D)